Is there an Ace up your sleeve?

In the last 3+ years, Modi government has taken several steps in the right direction. Some have started to pay dividends, some are in WIP stage (will pay dividends in future) and some probably missed the target. I am happy about even those steps that failed to achieve all the desired objectives because (a) they did not fail completely and did deliver on some counts and (b) they were steps in the right direction and were backed by all the right intentions.

Let us discuss the positives first. Following are some of the key achievements of Modi government (note: these include achievements as well as steps/plans);

1. Strategic relationships with several nations
2. Make in India initiative
3. Swachh Bharat Mission
4. Jan Dhan Yojana 
5. River linking project
6. Fast tracking of defence purchases
7. Smart Cities (100) project
8. Surgical strike
9. Demonetization*
10. Implementation of GST*
11. Program for divestment of public sector companies
12. Direct Cash Benefit Transfer Scheme 
13. Initiative to link Aadhar Card with other systems

* Have been discussed under positives as well as negatives

Now let us discuss the negatives;

1. Alliance with PDP in Jammu and Kashmir: (Though there is no place for emotional decisions in politics and it is a fact that politics is game of numbers, this alliance either should not have happened or BJP should have better handled the alliance with clearly laid out terms and conditions)
2. Demonetization*: Though I firmly believe that demonetization delivered several benefits (e.g. reduction in terror/naxal funding, increase in number of tax payers, even winning the UP elections), it is being argued that 'black money' did not 'go out' of the system. It is being said that 99% of the money found the way back. Having said that, the argument from the government also sounds valid. If the expectation was that the black money that was stored in cash would disappear as the culprits would not find a way to legalize that money then probably it was a failure. However, the government argues that though it is probably true that most of the money came back into the system, that is also a major positive. As per the government, the money moved from "No. 2 economy" (i.e., the black market) to the "No.1 economy". If that is true, it means that the money is no longer black money and has come back in regular circulation. It has become legal money and would help in strengthening the economy. Hence, technically the 'black money' did 'go-out'. Having said that, since demonetization failed to catch the culprits, it did miss the mark as it failed to deliver ALL the desired benefits. Hence, it has (also) been discussed under the negatives
3. Implementation of GST*: Though it is certainly a move in the right direction, the Finance Minister and GST Council could not have done anything more to complicate  matters. In most countries where GST has been implemented, there has been a single tax for everything. India has separate taxes for various good and services and the tax rate depends on the type of goods or service. To make the matter worse, VAT continues to exist on fuel!!! There is a significant and urgent need to simplify GST.

So, where do we stand? While I feel that Modi government could have done better, I am not unhappy at all. I see, acknowledge and appreciate the right intentions. And I do understand that 'Rome was not built in a day'. I am prepared to show patience. In any case, I do not see an alternative. Modi, by far, is the best bet for 2019 and for India.

But am I concerned? Little bit. While I hope that most people would make a rational decision in 2019, I do feel that people are losing patience. Though the steps are indeed in the right direction, the fact that the steps are yet to deliver quantifiable results worries me. Some voters may be tempted to try something new.

It must also be noted that the judiciary has done everything possible to step on the cake. Every decision/bill/policy/move has been questioned by the SC. They are pissed with the government as the government wanted a say in appointment of judges. However, this is also something that people would not consider in 2019. 

Hence, I believe that Modi government needs an impactful 2018. It should have something for everyone.

Do I mean that the government should distribute freebies? Certainly NOT!!!

There is a need for a thorough cost benefit analysis. In my opinion, the government can consider the following;

1. Changes in Income Tax laws. While Dr. Swamy says income tax should be abolished in India, I am not sure if that is feasible. Though only about 1% of Indian population pays income tax, it is still a high source of revenues for the government. With all the infrastructure projects planned, I am not sure if government can really afford abolishment of income tax. However, the threshold can be changed. For example, if the bar is raised to something like 1 crore per annum, it would give a relief to a large chunk of people in middle class. It would definitely have a negative impact on the revenues. It should also be noted that it is unlikely to have a major impact on sentiments as only about 1% of Indian population would be benefitted. Hence a cost-benefit analysis is required.
2. Lowering the fuel prices. High fuel prices impact a large chunk of Indian population and if the government manages to lower fuel prices by removing state taxes, it would do wonders to the sentiments. Again, it should not be a freebie and a thorough analysis of the pros and cons is required.
3. Scrapping of Article 370
4. Removal of MFN status given to Pakistan
5. Strong actions and retaliations on Pakistan border

There are several other actions that come to mind and are really important. However, the idea for 2018 should be 'Maximum Impact, Minimum Controversies'.

Modi and Shah are smart and they must have planned for some quantifiable actions for 2018. 

I just hope they have a real Ace up their sleeves!!!